bayespecon.models.flow_panel.NegativeBinomialFlowPanel¶

class bayespecon.models.flow_panel.NegativeBinomialFlowPanel(y, G, X, T, **kwargs)[source]¶

Aspatial panel OD-flow NB2 gravity baseline.

__init__(y, G, X, T, **kwargs)[source]¶

Methods

`__init__`(y, G, X, T, **kwargs)
`fit`([draws, tune, chains, target_accept, ...])	Draw samples from the posterior.
`fit_approx`([draws, n, method, random_seed, ...])	Fit a variational approximation and return posterior draws.
`posterior_predictive`([n_draws, random_seed])	Draw posterior-predictive flow counts for the panel Poisson gravity model.
`spatial_diagnostics`()	Run Bayesian LM specification tests for flow panel models.
`spatial_diagnostics_decision`([alpha, format])	Return a model-selection decision from Bayesian LM test results.
`spatial_effects`([draws, ...])	Summarise posterior origin/destination/intra/network/total effects.
`summary`([var_names])	Return posterior summary table via ArviZ.

Attributes

`approximation`	Return the most recent PyMC variational approximation, if any.
`inference_data`	Return posterior draws from the most recent fit.
`pymc_model`	Return the most recently built PyMC model.

property approximation[source]¶: Return the most recent PyMC variational approximation, if any.

fit(draws=2000, tune=1000, chains=4, target_accept=0.9, random_seed=None, store_lambda=False, idata_kwargs=None, progressbar=True, **sample_kwargs)[source]¶: Draw samples from the posterior.

fit_approx(draws=2000, n=10000, method='advi', random_seed=None, store_lambda=False, compute_log_likelihood=True, **fit_kwargs)[source]¶: Fit a variational approximation and return posterior draws.

property inference_data : arviz.data.inference_data.InferenceData | None[source]¶: Return posterior draws from the most recent fit.

posterior_predictive(n_draws=None, random_seed=None)[source]¶: Draw posterior-predictive flow counts for the panel Poisson gravity model.

property pymc_model : pymc.model.core.Model | None[source]¶: Return the most recently built PyMC model.

spatial_diagnostics()[source]¶

Run Bayesian LM specification tests for flow panel models.

Looks up the diagnostic suite registered for this model class and returns a tidy DataFrame with one row per test. See bayespecon.models.base.SpatialModel.spatial_diagnostics() for the column schema.

Raises:¶: RuntimeError – If the model has not been fit yet.

spatial_diagnostics_decision(alpha=0.05, format='graphviz')[source]¶

Return a model-selection decision from Bayesian LM test results.

Walks the panel-flow decision tree using Bayesian p-values from spatial_diagnostics() and recommends either OLSFlowPanel (no spatial dependence detected) or SARFlowPanel (at least one direction is significant).

Parameters:¶

alpha : float, default 0.05¶: Significance level for the Bayesian p-values.
format : {"graphviz", "ascii", "model"}, default "graphviz"¶: Output format. "model" returns the recommended model name string. "ascii" returns an indented box-drawing tree. "graphviz" returns a graphviz.Digraph (with ASCII fallback if graphviz is not installed).

Return type:¶

str or graphviz.Digraph

spatial_effects(draws=None, return_posterior_samples=False, ci=0.95, mode='auto')[source]¶

Summarise posterior origin/destination/intra/network/total effects.

See bayespecon.models.flow.FlowModel.spatial_effects() for the mode semantics (auto / combined / separate destination-origin sides per Thomas-Agnan & LeSage 2014, §83.5.2).

summary(var_names=None, **kwargs)[source]¶: Return posterior summary table via ArviZ.